The graph that may change everything

Gen Z aren't moving on from RTDs

I was sent this chart by a stunned New Zealand winery CEO, who’s been scratching his head about a sales report from a recent concert held at his own vineyard. 

One RTD brand made up more than 50% of sales. Beer came in second. As you can see, wine didn’t even get the bronze medal.

What is going on?

The concert crowd were mostly in their twenties - traditionally a time when drinkers move from the pop-fizz they drank through university into something more sophisticated: decent wine.

But industry leaders tell me this generation isn’t yet making that move. They are sticking to RTDs (helped in part by a new style of canned, ready-mixed drinks that are less sickly-sweet than their predecessors). We should acknowledge that the above graph comes from a pop concert - it’s possible these drink choices were influenced by what wasn’t going to spill in the mosh pit. But could you imagine going to a winery event five or ten years ago where almost nobody was drinking wine?

My friendly CEO tells me:

“Wine consumption is being hit from two ends of the age spectrum. There’s also a real shift to less/no alcohol options by older drinkers. An old marketing rule I remember from many years ago was ‘watch for the pincer movement’. When something comes at a product or market from both ends it can be a sign of real change.”

Aside from great wine, the New Zealand industry is known for two things - sustainability and innovation. I suspect they’ll already be looking to ramp up the latter - working out how to capture the attention of new audiences, give them a product (and packaging) that will better suit their needs and find new ways to sell to drinkers (local and international) who’ve already discovered the beauty and subtlety of fine New Zealand wine.

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Could the fact twentysomethings aren’t moving onto wine reflect a bigger problem with that age group? A couple of years ago I interviewed FT journalist Emma Jacobs who noted that while in many ways the horrors of the internet (easy access to pornography, mass exposure to the judgment of strangers, live streaming of violent events) has made this generation grow up too fast, they are nonetheless skipping many of the landmark events that traditionally mark the transition to adulthood. 

Driving a car, leaving home, getting married, having children. Having sex, smoking your first cigarette, drinking alcohol. Gen Z just aren’t doing it (at least, not as much). Per Generations author Jean Twenge  "In terms of adult activities, 18-year-olds now look like 15-year-olds once did."

Jacobs blames a lot of this stuff on economic factors - it’s hard to leave home if you can’t buy or even rent one for yourself. But other interviewees I’ve spoken to, like Dr Peter Gray, see the postponement of adulting as a symptom of infantilisation, tracing its origins to over-protective parenting, lack of play time and the disappearance of meaningful (offline) socialising. This all adds up to fewer opportunities to learn resilience, a key tool for escaping psychological childhood.

Or maybe people on the dance floor just prefer drinking out of cans?